Welcome back!

The week in review:

Home loan rates were virtually unchanged during the first full week of 2010.

What to expect:

There are no high impact economic reports due for release until Thursday this week. In the last two days of the week, we’ll see the Retail Sales Report and the Consumer Price Index. Both of these reports contain information about the current state of the economy and could cause interest rate movement.

Higher than expected retail sales could cause rates to increase.

Breg-ometer:

Next 7 Days: Rates better at the beginning of the week

Next 30 Days: Same range

Next 90 Days: Rates most likely to increase

Courtesy of:

Bob Bregitzer

Southeast Mortgage

[where: 30339]

The week in review:

Last week marked what I would consider the first poor week of Treasury auctions we have had in a while. We also found out that Retail Sales are coming in higher than expected. Both of these events caused home loan rates to increase for the second week in a row. Home loan rates ended the week up .125% to .25%.

What to expect:

The week ahead is packed with economic reports. The most important reports of the week will be those measuring inflation at the producer and consumer levels. The Fed also meets Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. While we don’t expect any changes to short-term rates, they most likely will be discussing exit strategies for the various stimulus plans in effect.

Expect home loan rates to move a leg higher should the Fed start sharing its exit plans with the world.

Breg-ometer:

Next 7 days: Higher trend likely to continue

Next 30 days: Volatile but still staying low

Next 90 days: The writing is on the wall – rates are moving up.

The Week in Review:

“The World is Flat” by Thomas L. Friedman is a book that demonstrates through stories and anecdotes that our world is evolving into one economic platform. His theory held true last week when surprising news about Dubai hit the news wires. Dubai World, a government-run company, requested a repayment delay with its creditors. The announcement created fear that a default could cause a ripple effect throughout the world. As a result, worldwide investors moved funds into the US Bond markets because the US market is considered one of the safest.

Home loan rates decreased about .125% on the week.

What to Expect:

Everyone will be keeping an eye on the developments in Dubai. A default could prolong the financial crisis and will impact our markets.

Here at home, we have two manufacturing reports out early in the week and the Department of Labor’s Jobs Report out on Friday. Each of these will shed some light on how our economy is progressing. Good economic news generally causes home loan rates to increase.

Breg-ometer:

Next 7 Days: Rates are at 2009 lows. A reversal higher is possible.

Next 30 Days: Rates should still be in the same range.

Next 90 Days: Rate higher

Courtesy of:

Bob Bregitzer

Southeast Mortgage

[where: 30339]

The week in review:

Home loan rates increased slightly during the week. However, they managed to end the week around the same levels where they began.

What to expect:

It is a shortened holiday week, but there are plenty of items on the agenda. Tuesday we get an update on consumer and business consumption with the GDP Report. Following on Wednesday is the Fed’s favorite gauge on inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Report. Also, the Treasury is auctioning off record levels of treasury securities the first three days of this week.

Weak economic news generally causes home loan rates to decrease and vice versa.

Breg-ometer:

Next 7 days: No significant change

Next 30 days: Rates are at record low levels; increase possible

Next 90 days: Higher

[where: 30080]

The week in Review:

Home loan rates decreased about .125% by the end of the week. While the employment numbers may be improving, they still showed weakness and helped rates improve.

What to expect:

This week is loaded with economic reports. In the first three days of the week, we’ll see the Retail Sales, Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index Reports. Each report contains important information about how the consumer is spending.

Remember, while rates have improved, the Fed purchases of mortgage-backed securities have decreased by almost half the past couple of weeks. We are still projecting rates to rise in the not so distant future.

Breg-ometer:

Next 7 Days: No significant change expected – A slight increase would not be surprising given the recent decline in rates

Next 30 Days: Same range

Next 90 Days: Rates increasing

Courtesy of:

Bob Bregitzer

Southeast Mortgage

[where: 30080]