22nd February 2008

Don’t Get Burned by the HELOC Freeze

Several major lenders are freezing withdrawals from Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) – and I don’t want you to be caught off guard by this development.

HELOCs, though secured by your real estate, are treated by lenders as consumer credit. And just as a lender can revise the terms of your credit cards, or even cancel them, the same can be done with your HELOC.

Previously, HELOC withdrawals were usually only frozen for reasons such as bankruptcy, declining credit and payment problems.

While these events can still cause a freeze, there’s another factor that lenders are considering more often today: the value of your property. You should be aware that the lender retains the right to suspend or reduce the line of credit available if your property value falls below the appraised value used to originate the loan. Lenders are actively assessing properties and then suspending access for account holders who have seen a downward slide in their home value.

If you’re in a market that has seen real estate values decline, then access to your HELOC may be at risk. Your financial security and success are my highest priority. Please call me to discuss your options in this rapidly changing marketplace.

Sincerely,

Dan Dadoun

Emcore Mortgage, LLC
Dan@emcoremortgage.com

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22nd January 2008

Surprising FED Cut

In a surprising move this morning – The Fed cut the Feds Funds by.75%, lowering it to 3.5%. The Fed decided to hold a special meeting last night as US Stocks futures were trading significantly lower and Stocks around the world sold off sharply yesterday and this morning as foreign countries fear a US recession. This morning’s Fed cut was the first intermeeting Fed action since September, 2001, and the deepest one day Fed Cut since 1984.

Analysts said the Fed will likely delay cutting rates further at its Jan. 29-30 meeting but will probably keep moving rates down aggressively as the economy continues to weaken.

“This move is not an instant fix,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. “The economy is still staring recession in the face, but at least the Fed now gets it.”

In addition to cutting the funds rate, the Fed said it was reducing its discount rate, the interest it charges to make direct loans to banks, by a similar three-quarters of a percentage point, pushing this rate down to 4 percent.

Commercial banks responded to the Fed’s action on the funds rate by announcing similar cuts of three-quarter of a percent on its prime lending rate, the benchmark for millions of business and consumer loans. The action will mean the prime lending rate will drop from 7.25 percent down to 6.50 percent.

The Fed action was the most dramatic signal it can send that it is concerned about a potential recession in the United States.

The Fed decision was taken during an emergency telephone conference with Fed officials on Monday night. Those discussions occurred after global financial markets had plunged Monday as investors grew more concerned about the possibility that the United States, the world’s largest economy, could be headed into a recession.

In a brief statement, the Fed said it had decided to cut the federal funds rate “in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth.”

The central bank said that the strains in short-term funding markets have eased a bit, but “broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.”

The move caught financial markets by surprise. Many had expected the central bank would wait until its meeting next week to make any move in interest rates. The Fed made the move before markets had opened in the United States, hoping that the bold move would limit the decline in U.S. stocks.

Before Tuesday’s move, the Fed had cut interest rates three times, beginning in September, the month after a severe credit crunch had roiled Wall Street and global financial markets. The Fed cut the funds rate by a half-point in September and then by smaller quarter-point moves in October and December.

In its statement, the Fed said, that “appreciable downside risks to growth remain” and held out the prospect of further rate cuts.

“The committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risk,” the Fed statement said.

The Fed’s action was approved on an 8-1 vote with William Poole, president the Fed’s regional bank, dissenting. The statement said that Poole objected because he did not believe current conditions justified a rate move before the Fed’s meeting next week.

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2nd November 2007

Federal Reserve Cuts Rates

So the Federal Reserve cut rates. I, as a Mortgage Broker have been fielding many calls asking how have mortgage rates benefitted from the cut? And are expecting a lower interest rate. Others who have been waiting to refinance are puzzled as to why mortgage rates have not moved lower during recent Fed rate cuts. The following is part of an article written by Barry Habib is currently the CEO of the Mortgage Market Guide and is regularly featured on CNBC.

Barry does a great job explaining the impact of a Fed rate cut.Is a Fed rate cut really good news for mortgage rates? The facts may be surprising. The Fed can only control the Discount Rate and the Fed Funds Rate. This is very different from mortgage rates. A mortgage rate can be in effect for 30-years, a rate that is set by the Fed can change from one day to another.Another common mistake is in thinking that 30-year Treasury bonds or 10-year Treasury notes are directly pegged to mortgage rates.

Those are government securities that are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government and have no direct effect on mortgage rates.So what are mortgage rates based on? As it turns out the answer is mortgage-backed bonds known as Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (MBS) and the trading performance of those bonds will determine the direction of mortgage rates.

Finding the catalyst that causes mortgage bonds to move will give you the keys to finding out what makes mortgage rates rise or fall.We know that inflation will always be a negative for any long-term bond because it eats away at the future returns. Since the bond will pay a set amount over a long period of time, that amount will be less valuable if inflation is high.

Over the past several years, one catalyst that seems to be working in the opposite direction of MBS prices is the Nasdaq and broader stock market.As bond prices rise, interest rates fall. As bond prices fall, interest rates rise. Something to watch is that the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Fannie Mae 6.5% mortgage bond tend to follow paths that are almost mirror images of each other.

The consistency of this behavior is astounding.As the Nasdaq moves higher, bond prices move lower causing interest rates to rise. As the Nasdaq declines, mortgage bonds benefit, causing mortgage rates to fall. Additionally, and unlike common opinion, Fed rate cuts have had virtually no direct effect on mortgage rates. Moreover, it appears that since Fed rate cuts act to stimulate the Nasdaq, they have a negative effect on mortgage rates.

The bottom line is that it appears mortgage rates will get better if the Nasdaq sells off and will get worse if the Nasdaq rallies. So it is not necessarily what the Fed does that affects mortgage rates, it’s how the Nasdaq and broader stock market interprets the Fed’s action that will ultimately influence the direction of mortgage rates. This is because money managers and mutual fund companies typically keep funds in either stocks or bonds with very little in cash.

If stocks are in favor, money is pulled from bonds, causing bond prices to drop and interest rates to rise. When stocks are being sold off, the money is then parked into bonds, which improves bond prices and causes interest rates to decline.Predicting the future is tough, so nothing is written in stone. Keep an eye on the Nasdaq, and keep in mind that the best rates may be behind us. But, mortgage rates are still low and could have some quick dips so make the most of them while they last.

I hope you this article helps you better understand mortgage rates. As you are probably aware the Fed did cut rates by .25 on Wednesday 10,31,2007. Initial reaction reflected negatively on the bond market but has since improved.

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