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The Week in Review:

Home loan rates remained relatively unchanged last week. Although there was volatility, there was no clear direction in the Mortgage-Backed Securities market last week.

What to Expect:

Our friends at the Fed will release their Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement on Tuesday. Here’s what we expect: The Fed Funds Rate will remain unchanged at 0-.25%. We expect the Fed to address the continual struggle in the labor market. They will most likely mention that the overall economy is slow but improving from worse levels.

The Fed has maintained the statement “rates will stay low for an extended period of time”. It will be interesting to see if this language continues to be used. Several Fed members have been quoted recently expressing concerns over this language.

Breg-ometer:

Next 7 Days: Neutral

Next 30 Days: Same range

Next 90 Days: Rates expected to increase

Courtesy of:

Bob Bregitzer

Southeast Mortgage

[where: 30339]

The Week in Review:

Home loan rates ended the week about where they started after slightly decreasing mid-week.

What to expect:

It will be a pretty quiet week for scheduled economic reports. The most relevant report will be the Retail Sales Report coming at the end of the week. A strong report showing increased retail activity could cause home loan rates to increase.

While the economic calendar is sparse this week, there are plenty of events that could cause rates to move. With the healthcare debate heating up in Washington and the Fed’s Mortgage-Backed Securities Program coming to an end, rate movement is always possible.

Breg-ometer:

Next 7 Days: Neutral

Next 30 Days: Rates could start moving upward

Next 90 Days: Rate increase likely

Courtesy of:

Bob Bregitzer

Southeast Mortgage

[where: 30080]

Week in Review:

Mortgage rates decreased on the week primarily because consumer confidence reports showed consumers don’t share the rosy outlook of politicians and the media. Interest rates improved about .125%

What to Expect:

This week we get a number of economic reports including the Department of Labor’s Jobs Report. This report includes the latest government data on job losses and the unemployment rate. A poor report could cause rates to decrease further.

This month marks the end of the Fed’s Mortgage-Backed Securities purchase program. As we talked about in the past, we feel home loan rates are subject to increase after the program is over. Furthermore, the Fed must eventually sell what they have purchased which could have a reverse effect on rates.

Breg-ometer:

Next 7 Days: Same range

Next 30 Days: Same range

Next 90 Days: Home loan rates increase

Courtesy of:

Bob Bregitzer

Southeast Mortgage

[where: 30339]

The Week in Review:

Home loan rates decreased slightly during the week partly due to the Department of labor’s Job Report that showed 20,000 jobs were lost in January.

What to expect:

It will be a quite week for economic reports. The most meaningful report is the Retail Sales report which is expected to show a small increase in consumer spending activity.

While rates have decreased the past couple of weeks, don’t ignore “the elephant in the room”. The Fed purchased $12 billion in Mortgage-Backed Securities last week to help bring those rates down. The purchase program goes away in March. Without the stimulus provided by this program, rates are susceptible to moving higher.

Breg-ometer:

Next 7 Days: Same range

Next 30 Days: Same range

Next 90 Days; Rates moving higher

Courtesy of:

Bob Bregitzer

Southeast Mortgage

[where: 30080]

The Week in Review:

Good News/Bad News. The Fed announced last week that they will keep “rates low for an extended period of time”. However, they also announced that they will not be extending the mortgage-backed security purchase program scheduled to end in March.

Home loan rates experienced quite a bit of mid-week volatility but ended unchanged from the previous week.

What to expect:

What does the Fed announcement mean? The Fed maintains the ability to keep short-term rates low. However, their primary method of keeping long-term rates (ie. 30 year fixed mortgages) low was the mortgage-back security program. With this program ending, we have to believe that long-term rates will increase.

Breg-ometer:

Next 7 Days: Same range

Next 30 Days: Same range

Next 90 Days: Increasing rates

Courtesy of:

Bob Bregitzer

Southeast Mortgage